Why the Patriots Want a Fullback

The New England Patriots have brought offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels back into the fold and he has been trying to incorporate the fullback position into the offense for the entire off-season. The Patriots have tried Spencer Larsen, Tony Fiammetta, Eric Kettani, James Develin, and now Lex Hilliard. They've historically utilized linemen, like Dan Connolly, Donald Thomas, and Ryan Wendell, at fullback, and even defenders like Dane Fletcher. Last year, they tried one of the better fullbacks of the past decade, Lousaka Polite. The Patriots have been churning through players at the position and it leads to the question: Why the heck do the Patriots, a pass-first team, want a fullback so badly?

Defending the Jaguars and Anger

The Jacksonville Jaguars surprised the public when they grabbed punter Bryan Anger in the third round. Anger was considered the best punting prospect, so it wasn’t a shock that he was the first one taken, but the fact he was taken so early earned the scorn of the general public. Specialists are typically left until the end of the draft due to their perceived limited every-down contribution. Well, the pick isn’t a bad one, if he’s as good as he’s expected to be. In fact, it’s actually a very good one.

Very few punters are taken so early in the draft- the most recent being the successful Dustin Colquitt. More recently, Anger has drawn comparisons to Zoltan Mesko. Should Anger live up to those comparisons, he could develop into a top 10 punter in the league. That’s a considerable improvement when the Jaguars ranked in the bottom 5 of punting statistics last season (31st in average punting yards, 28th in net punting yards, 3rd in total punts).

Anger averaged 45 yards/punt in college and has great skill in placing the ball away from the returnman. He’s still growing and can continue to add strength to his leg. As he stands, he would add 3-4 yards/punt over the Jaguars’ last season average. If he continues to grow to match Colquitt or Mesko, his benefit to the Jaguars should roughly be 5 yards/punt and should bring the Jaguars punting unit into the top 10 of the league. Should.

Sportfolio Management: Football Freakonomics

I'm not going to lie; I've had this project in the back of my mind for a couple of years. The past few football seasons, I've dedicated my time to writing at Pats Pulpit, one of the leading Patriots fan blogs on the internet, but now I feel like turning another chapter in my life as a fan of the NFL.

A little bit about myself: I'm born and raised in the Boston area, went to high school at Phillips Exeter Academy in New Hampshire, and went on to graduate college at Boston College while triple majoring in Finance, Operations, and Leadership. I've always been a Patriots fan, but I never felt the bite of the football bug until my sophomore year in college. It was the season that Tom Brady returned from his knee injury and I really started focusing on the team and how the Patriots were able to become such a successful franchise. Additionally, I was smitten with power rankings and started to apply really broad statistics to try and deduce which team had the best chance to win the Super Bowl.

There was no real foundation to my claims. I weighted winning percentage with point differential, while giving bonus points for beating top teams and subtracted points for losing to bottom feeders. At the end of the season, my rankings almost matched reality for playoff seeds and I was inspired to continue my work. Of course, with such a heavy emphasis on winning percentage, the playoff seeds should have definitely aligned with my projections- but don't tell me that three seasons ago.

Over the years, I've developed my knowledge of the game and have created a deep respect for the calculus behind constructing an NFL roster. Clearly I had an advantage as one of the best minds in the NFL- Patriots coach and GM Bill Belichick- was in my headlights, yet my curiosity grew. How are good teams built? Why do bad teams remain bad? I wanted to examine the flesh and bones of rosters to determine the best way to build a team.

How to Draft a Quarterback

Back in 2010, I took a class called “The Business of Sports” where I was asked to write a paper on any sports subject that I wanted. Naturally, I decided to write something about football. Looking around the league, it was interesting to see how many teams have drafted quarterbacks that do not pan into NFL successes. Quarterbacks like JaMarcus Russell flame out, while Matt Leinart and Brady Quinn never get a chance. Other players like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady thrive. What’s the reasoning? Is there some way of predicting NFL success by just looking at college success?

It turns out, yeah, there’s a way of determining a quarterback’s potential success. Others have already written on the subject and they’ve done a pretty solid job of evaluating this subject. However, I wanted to come up with a new metric, so I came up with a 100 point scoring system, based on 5 qualifications. When I wrote the paper, I hadn’t fully ironed out my scoring system, so some of my numbers have changed, but the point still remains on the prospects.

The paper is over 20 pages. It’s copied and pasted from Microsoft Word so it might have an odd format, but it’s all after the jump. Be ready. I hope you enjoy reading!

Jaguars Should Sell on MJD

I'm a huge fan of the Jaguar's Maurice Jones-Drew. He's a bowling ball with the nose for extra yards. He can run the ball, he can catch, and he can block in the backfield. He has carried the Jaguars for many years and he's looking for a new contract, as he has two season left on a five year deal he signed in 2009. At just 27, MJD is in the peak of his career and is looking to cash in since running backs are known for breaking down after 30. He has been holding out of camp as he looks for more money- the contract he signed was front loaded- and now he is demanding a trade. The Jaguars are left with a decision to make, but the answer is clear: they should sell while they still can.

The Value of Demps

The New England Patriots signing of former Florida running back and Olympian Jeff Demps will have a clear impact on the Patriots return game, should Demps make the roster. The Patriots did not have a consistent return game in 2011 as running back Danny Woodhead was asked to shoulder the load. He was largely ineffective and, likely impacted by the new kick-off marker, was the one of the returnmen with the least impact in the Belichick era.

Over the seasons, the Patriots have been largely mediocre in the return game, although they have always managed to find a talented returnman who provided either depth or starting quality on either the offensive or defensive side of the ball.

Updated Draft Value Chart

The value of a draft pick has changed since the new rookie salary cap as teams have become more willing to trade inside the first round. While there is only two seasons worth of data, I was able to create a new Draft Value Chart that is based upon a 100 point scale.


This chart fairly represents the trades of each team during the draft and can be used for evaluation purposes of draft pick value. Keep in mind that any trade that is within a couple points of each side is a positive trade as 6th and 7th round picks are worth under 2 points on the chart- and picks that late are regarded as easily obtainable.

Over the past two seasons, there have been 50 trades of just purely draft picks (ie: picks that do not involve players). Of these 50 trades, only 16 have exceeded 2.20 points in differential (the cost of the very last 5th round pick). Of those 16 trades, 12 involved first round picks as teams are willing to pay a premium for players they believe are the elite members in the draft. Generally, a sweetener of approximately a 5th round pick is needed to beat out other teams negotiating for the same first round pick.

As the pick moves into the top 10, draft charts should be thrown out. It comes down to how much a team wants a player and how much the team with the pick is willing to move. Players selected in the top 10 typically have nothing to do with value. They are supposed to be elite game changers who can change the face of a franchise- and that can't have a price tag. With that said, premiums are necessary when attempting to move into the top 10 and those premiums will be determined on a team-to-team and a player-to-player basis.

How to Draft a Running Back

   Earlier in the year, I wrote about how to draft a quarterback and I decided that I should write on a topic more relevant to the Patriots. What do all the successful running backs have in common, and what connects all of the draft busts? The Patriots are in the market for an additional running back and you might be surprised at how on the money they are with their contacts (or you might not be surprised at all). I used a combination of CBS NFL Draft and Pro Football Reference for my statistics and if you ever need draft or stats information, they're two of the best sites available.

   For this project, I assembled data on all college running backs with combine or pro day data, and some backs without, since 2005. My hope was to find a common thread amongst the top performers in the NFL and find out ways to weed out the underperformers. I used Pro Football Reference to make a list of every single running back who have made their debut since 2005 and their average yearly production to determine their contributions at the NFL level. The top five running backs who have debuted since 2005 are:

1. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers
5. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

   After agreeing with the rankings of 280 running backs, I set forth to analyze the data in order to see what connected these players.

Perpetuities and Annuities

(Editor's Note: This was originally posted here)

By now, you are all familiar with the Patriots trading Richard Seymour for Oakland's 17th overall pick in this year's draft. You also should know that the Patriots shipped their 28th overall pick for New Orleans' 2nd round pick and a first round pick in 2012. Let me put my Finance major to good work and try and explain what the Patriots are trying to accomplish.
Definitions:

Annuity - A fixed sum of money, paid to a party each year for a set length of time.
Perpetuity - An annuity with no end; a fixed sum of money paid each year for an indefinite length of time.
Coupon - The fixed sum of money.

My theory is that the Patriots have utilized Richard Seymour as the payment for a draft perpetuity. That's right- the Patriots will be reaping the benefits from Richard Seymour long after he's left the franchise and the league. Coach and GM Bill Belichick makes it clear that his main concern in the draft is the upkeep of the franchise. He never has the "win this year, or bust" mentality. He puts the team in the best position to compete this year, while still thinking of the health of the franchise's future. Belichick understands the value of building a team through the draft and he will continue to take draft picks to flesh out the roster.