Saturday, March 3, 2012

How to Draft a Running Back

   Earlier in the year, I wrote about how to draft a quarterback and I decided that I should write on a topic more relevant to the Patriots. What do all the successful running backs have in common, and what connects all of the draft busts? The Patriots are in the market for an additional running back and you might be surprised at how on the money they are with their contacts (or you might not be surprised at all). I used a combination of CBS NFL Draft and Pro Football Reference for my statistics and if you ever need draft or stats information, they're two of the best sites available.

   For this project, I assembled data on all college running backs with combine or pro day data, and some backs without, since 2005. My hope was to find a common thread amongst the top performers in the NFL and find out ways to weed out the underperformers. I used Pro Football Reference to make a list of every single running back who have made their debut since 2005 and their average yearly production to determine their contributions at the NFL level. The top five running backs who have debuted since 2005 are:
1. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers
5. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
   After agreeing with the rankings of 280 running backs, I set forth to analyze the data in order to see what connected these players.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Perpetuities and Annuities

(Editor's Note: This was originally posted here)

By now, you are all familiar with the Patriots trading Richard Seymour for Oakland's 17th overall pick in this year's draft. You also should know that the Patriots shipped their 28th overall pick for New Orleans' 2nd round pick and a first round pick in 2012. Let me put my Finance major to good work and try and explain what the Patriots are trying to accomplish.
Definitions:
Annuity - A fixed sum of money, paid to a party each year for a set length of time.
Perpetuity - An annuity with no end; a fixed sum of money paid each year for an indefinite length of time.
Coupon - The fixed sum of money.
My theory is that the Patriots have utilized Richard Seymour as the payment for a draft perpetuity. That's right- the Patriots will be reaping the benefits from Richard Seymour long after he's left the franchise and the league. Coach and GM Bill Belichick makes it clear that his main concern in the draft is the upkeep of the franchise. He never has the "win this year, or bust" mentality. He puts the team in the best position to compete this year, while still thinking of the health of the franchise's future. Belichick understands the value of building a team through the draft and he will continue to take draft picks to flesh out the roster.