Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Updated Draft Value Chart

The value of a draft pick has changed since the new rookie salary cap as teams have become more willing to trade inside the first round. While there is only two seasons worth of data, I was able to create a new Draft Value Chart that is based upon a 100 point scale.

Post Rookie Cap
This chart fairly represents the trades of each team during the draft and can be used for evaluation purposes of draft pick value. Keep in mind that any trade that is within a couple points of each side is a positive trade as 6th and 7th round picks are worth under 2 points on the chart- and picks that late are regarded as easily obtainable.

Over the past two seasons, there have been 50 trades of just purely draft picks (ie: picks that do not involve players). Of these 50 trades, only 16 have exceeded 2.20 points in differential (the cost of the very last 5th round pick). Of those 16 trades, 12 involved first round picks as teams are willing to pay a premium for players they believe are the elite members in the draft. Generally, a sweetener of approximately a 5th round pick is needed to beat out other teams negotiating for the same first round pick.

As the pick moves into the top 10, draft charts should be thrown out. It comes down to how much a team wants a player and how much the team with the pick is willing to move. Players selected in the top 10 typically have nothing to do with value. They are supposed to be elite game changers who can change the face of a franchise- and that can't have a price tag. With that said, premiums are necessary when attempting to move into the top 10 and those premiums will be determined on a team-to-team and a player-to-player basis.