I'm a huge fan of the Jaguar's Maurice Jones-Drew. He's a bowling ball with the nose for extra yards. He can run the ball, he can catch, and he can block in the backfield. He has carried the Jaguars for many years and he's looking for a new contract, as he has two season left on a five year deal he signed in 2009. At just 27, MJD is in the peak of his career and is looking to cash in since running backs are known for breaking down after 30. He has been holding out of camp as he looks for more money- the contract he signed was front loaded- and now he is demanding a trade. The Jaguars are left with a decision to make, but the answer is clear: they should sell while they still can.
Of course, selling MJD is a long term decision, not a short time gain. MJD is an all-league running back and while Rashad Jennings has flashed potential, it would not be easy to replace MJD's talent. Still, much like the Patriots trading Richard Seymour with a little gas left in the tank, the Jaguars could very well make the same deal. Let's look at the facts:
The dreaded running back touch limit has struck down many an elite talent as players who push the 400 touch barrier often see a drop off in their career production. Typically, the strains of a high impact season reduce the player's effectiveness in the following season and, soon after, the player is already heading towards the twilight of their career. MJD was in the cation zone last season as he carried the team and would have definitely needed a reduced load in 2012 if he were to remain effective as he finished his contract.
MJD's size is cause for more concern. It's very rare for a running back of his size to be as effective as he has been. It's even more rare for a player of his size to have an extended career. Of the 17 running backs under 5'9 drafted in the first three rounds in the past 25 years, only 4 ended up starting over 48 games (3 seasons worth), and all but one player who saw over 600 carries missed extensive time over their career due to injuries. That's not a good track record.
Still, it would be unwise to assume that MJD still had nothing left to offer. At the very least, he could provide some value through the end of his contract. Unfortunately, the prospects of MJD reaching the end of his contract is getting dimmer each day. The Jaguars have expressed they will not increase the pay for MJD and MJD has requested a trade. What do I think? I think they should jump at the chance of trading him.
There is little recent history around trading top running backs in their prime. Here are a few from the past twenty seasons:
Right now, MJD is at the peak of his career and there's plenty of risk regarding when and how steep his fall in production will be. The Patriots gambled when they traded away Richard Seymour while he still had some productive seasons left. Will the Jaguars take the same risk? MJD seems primed to break the trend of aging, smaller running backs- but that will only happen if he takes the field.
As it stands, no one will walk away a winner from MJD's hold out. MJD won't see more money. The Jaguars won't receive any production from their running back and they will also be losing value on a tradeable player. Therefore, if the price is right, the Jaguars should take a deal and ship MJD to a different team.
Of course, selling MJD is a long term decision, not a short time gain. MJD is an all-league running back and while Rashad Jennings has flashed potential, it would not be easy to replace MJD's talent. Still, much like the Patriots trading Richard Seymour with a little gas left in the tank, the Jaguars could very well make the same deal. Let's look at the facts:
MJD pushed the running back touch limit last season, with 386 touches for 1980 total yards and 11 touchdowns.The first and the third factors are what frighten me the most, if I'm the Jaguars, and are reasons why I would sell MJD while he's still offering high market value.
MJD just turned 27 years old and while the treads on his career-long tires aren't too worn, he has been the workhorse for the past three seasons.
MJD is 5'7. Only one other running back in the history of the NFL has run for over 1000 yards after the age of 27 and while shorter than 5'7. One.
The dreaded running back touch limit has struck down many an elite talent as players who push the 400 touch barrier often see a drop off in their career production. Typically, the strains of a high impact season reduce the player's effectiveness in the following season and, soon after, the player is already heading towards the twilight of their career. MJD was in the cation zone last season as he carried the team and would have definitely needed a reduced load in 2012 if he were to remain effective as he finished his contract.
MJD's size is cause for more concern. It's very rare for a running back of his size to be as effective as he has been. It's even more rare for a player of his size to have an extended career. Of the 17 running backs under 5'9 drafted in the first three rounds in the past 25 years, only 4 ended up starting over 48 games (3 seasons worth), and all but one player who saw over 600 carries missed extensive time over their career due to injuries. That's not a good track record.
Still, it would be unwise to assume that MJD still had nothing left to offer. At the very least, he could provide some value through the end of his contract. Unfortunately, the prospects of MJD reaching the end of his contract is getting dimmer each day. The Jaguars have expressed they will not increase the pay for MJD and MJD has requested a trade. What do I think? I think they should jump at the chance of trading him.
There is little recent history around trading top running backs in their prime. Here are a few from the past twenty seasons:
The Patriots obtained Corey Dillon at the age of 29 for a 2nd round pick (Dillon was coming off an injury).That's it. Teams took discounts due to injury risks, although none of the three above players were coming off of seasons like MJD's 2011 season. So what can be gleaned from these past trades? Very little, but the Jaguars should be looking at a pair of 2nds as a minimum floor for MJD (approximately 60 points). A realistic ceiling would be around 80 points (eg: Mid 1st + 3rd; Late 1st + 2nd). While the clearly preferential option would be for MJD to stick around and be a necessary part of franchise quarterback Blaine Gabbert's growth, getting return in a trade would be better than having MJD hold out or not give any effort on the field.
The Jets obtained Thomas Jones at the age of 29 to swap 2nd round picks (equivalent of an early 3rd round pick; Jones was injury prone).
The Ravens obtained Willis McGahee at the age of 26 for a 3rd, a 7th, and a future 3rd (equivalent of a late 2nd round pick; coming off of injuries).
Right now, MJD is at the peak of his career and there's plenty of risk regarding when and how steep his fall in production will be. The Patriots gambled when they traded away Richard Seymour while he still had some productive seasons left. Will the Jaguars take the same risk? MJD seems primed to break the trend of aging, smaller running backs- but that will only happen if he takes the field.
As it stands, no one will walk away a winner from MJD's hold out. MJD won't see more money. The Jaguars won't receive any production from their running back and they will also be losing value on a tradeable player. Therefore, if the price is right, the Jaguars should take a deal and ship MJD to a different team.
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