The New England Patriots signing of former Florida running back and Olympian Jeff Demps will have a clear impact on the Patriots return game, should Demps make the roster. The Patriots did not have a consistent return game in 2011 as running back Danny Woodhead was asked to shoulder the load. He was largely ineffective and, likely impacted by the new kick-off marker, was the one of the returnmen with the least impact in the Belichick era.
Over the seasons, the Patriots have been largely mediocre in the return game, although they have always managed to find a talented returnman who provided either depth or starting quality on either the offensive or defensive side of the ball.
From 2000-02, Kevin Faulk was the primary kick returner, fielding 97 kick-offs with an average of 22.7 yards/return and two touchdowns. It should be noted that Deion Branch split the returns in 2002, catching 36 for a 24.0 yards/return average. For both players, they were key offensive cogs in an up-and-coming machine and they were able to translate their ability to help out on special teams.
From 2003-05, Bethel Johnson took over the reigns as the returnman. He was drafted in the second round, but only became a depth receiver. However, as a returnman he brought back 102 kicks for 25.1 yards/return average and two touchdowns. While he never lived up to the expectations as a receiver, he was a talent at returning the ball.
In 2006, Laurence Maroney returned kicks (while Faulk and Ellis Hobbs pitched in) to a surprisingly successful tune of 28 returns for a 28.0 yards/return average. He didn't take any to the house (although Hobbs did that season), but at least the Patriots had an able body in the deep field. Additionally, Maroney played a large role on offense and while, like Johnson, Maroney never lived up to his first round billing, he was able to contribute around 900 yards and 7 touchdowns a season.
During the 2007-08 seasons, Ellis Hobbs electrified Patriots nation and, including his efforts in '06 and '07, accounted for 105 returns for 27.7 yards/return and 3 touchdowns. Hobbs was an unheralded Patriot cornerback starting nearly 50 games at corner, although he might be best known for not being tall enough to defend the touchdown that ended the Perfect Season.
In 2009, the Patriots were without a workhorse as Hobbs was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles and they were forced to scrap together a unit of Maroney, Julian Edelman, and Matthew Slater to field kick offs. Neither Maroney, nor Edelman were able to crack 22 yards/return on their attempts, while Slater did better on his 11 returns for a 24.5 yards/return pace.
In 2010, the Patriots used #3 receiver Brandon Tate as the kick returner and he exploded on his 41 returns for two touchdowns and a 25.8 yards/return average. Tate was expected to thrive as he entered the league as the ACC's all time leading kick returner, but unfortunately he was able to step up his game on the offensive side of the ball and eventually moved to Cincinnati.
This brings the team to 2011, where Danny Woodhead was the primary kick returner, grabbing 20 for an underwhelming 21.9 yards/return. His ability as a quick player on offense hasn't really translated in the return game where his open field speed won't leave many in the dust. While Woodhead was extremely consistent in bringing the ball back out to the twenty, he was never a threat for anything more.
Now in 2012, the Patriots have signed former Olympian sprinter Jeff Demps to most likely field kicks. In college, Demps only returned 21 kicks, but averaged 28.8 yards/return and had one touchdown. Similar to the evaluation for punter Pat Anger, Demps' potential added value could be projected by assuming 0.05 points/yard between the 20s. Should Demps average 28.8 yards/return, he projects 7 yards greater than Woodhead, leading to 0.35 points/return of added value.
However, it's unlikely that Demps would average 28.8 yards/return as that would rank him #4 in the league among qualifying returnmen (coincidentally, Woodhead was 4th from last). Should Demps be an average return man, he would post 25.0 yards/return similar to Bethel Johnson. Should he be slightly above average (Brandon Tate), a 26.0 yards/return would have him in the top third of the league. And if he somehow can match Hobbs' production at 27.7 yards/return, he would be #5 overall and a top returnman in the league. So let's see what the difference is over a season's worth of returning 30-40 kicks, assuming that the expectation is a minimum of downing the ball and starting at the 20 yard line:
Woodhead production: 22 yards/return - 0.1 points/return, 3-4 points/season; 0 points Value over Woodhead (VoW)
Faulk production: 23 yards/return - 0.15 points/return, 4.5-6 points/season; 0.5-3 VoW
Johnson production: 25 yards/return - 0.25 points/return, 7.5-10 points/season; 3.5-7 VoW
Tate production: 26 yards/return - 0.3 points/return, 9-12 points/season; 5-9 VoW
Hobbs production: 27 yards/return - 0.35 points/return, 10.5-14 points/season; 6.5-11 VoW
College production: 29 yards/return - 0.45 points/return, 13.5-18 points/season; 9.5-15 VoW
Of course, these numbers are just assumed averages and are based upon pure return yards. What if Demps should break free and score a touchdown? Let's look at the added value of other returnmen (plus a few additional rates):
Woodhead TDs: 0 TDs/return - +0 VoW/return = 0 VoW
1/100 returns - +0.07 VoW/return = +2.1-2.8 VoW
1/70 returns - +0.1 VoW/return = +3-4 VoW
Faulk TDs: 1 TD/50 returns - +0.14 VoW/return = +4.2-5.6 VoW
Hobbs TDs: 1 TD/33 returns - +0.21 VoW/return = +6.3-8.4 VoW
Tate TDs: 1 TD/20 returns - +0.35 VoW/return = +10.5-14 VoW
Coincidentally, Tate's TD rate with the Patriots was similar to Demps', albeit small in sample size, rate at Florida. Evaluating these numbers, it seems as if the difference between a Faulk and a Woodhead is an expected 9.7-11.6 points/season. Keep in mind that these touchdown rates need to be taken with a grain of salt as rates rarely are sustained over a player's lifetime and there is generally a trickle off in kick return touchdowns after a player's 5th season. Additionally, when looking at the current greats- Josh Cribbs averages a TD once every 43 returns, Leon Washington averages a TD every 31 returns- it seems likely that over a career, Demps will be very unlikely to sustain his college rate of touchdown returns.
So let's assume that Demps is able to take the ball to the house once every 50 returns and has above average yardage numbers at 26 yards/return. That means that Demps' VoW would be +9.2-14.6. Over the course of a season, Demps could look to return the ball between 30 and 40 times and those touches alone could provide a 1.8%-2.8% increase over 2011's point total- in line with justifying 1.9% of total roster space, right?
Could Demps' value be worth of a roster spot? Absolutely. However, if a player like Slater is able to provide 7 VoW, and is already guaranteed a roster spot, is the value still there? That's the question for the coaches to decide and is the reason why it is so difficult to project the players on the roster bubble.
To me, Demps has plenty of value in the return game and could create some unique packages for the Patriots on offense. Should offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels be able to create a package and get Demps on the offensive side of the ball, Demps should definitely be given a spot on the team. If he is unable to break through on the offensive side, though, his chances of making the roster are much less likely.
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I made a calculator where you can project a player's added value over the old return man, and you can play around with the numbers.
Over the seasons, the Patriots have been largely mediocre in the return game, although they have always managed to find a talented returnman who provided either depth or starting quality on either the offensive or defensive side of the ball.
From 2000-02, Kevin Faulk was the primary kick returner, fielding 97 kick-offs with an average of 22.7 yards/return and two touchdowns. It should be noted that Deion Branch split the returns in 2002, catching 36 for a 24.0 yards/return average. For both players, they were key offensive cogs in an up-and-coming machine and they were able to translate their ability to help out on special teams.
From 2003-05, Bethel Johnson took over the reigns as the returnman. He was drafted in the second round, but only became a depth receiver. However, as a returnman he brought back 102 kicks for 25.1 yards/return average and two touchdowns. While he never lived up to the expectations as a receiver, he was a talent at returning the ball.
In 2006, Laurence Maroney returned kicks (while Faulk and Ellis Hobbs pitched in) to a surprisingly successful tune of 28 returns for a 28.0 yards/return average. He didn't take any to the house (although Hobbs did that season), but at least the Patriots had an able body in the deep field. Additionally, Maroney played a large role on offense and while, like Johnson, Maroney never lived up to his first round billing, he was able to contribute around 900 yards and 7 touchdowns a season.
During the 2007-08 seasons, Ellis Hobbs electrified Patriots nation and, including his efforts in '06 and '07, accounted for 105 returns for 27.7 yards/return and 3 touchdowns. Hobbs was an unheralded Patriot cornerback starting nearly 50 games at corner, although he might be best known for not being tall enough to defend the touchdown that ended the Perfect Season.
In 2009, the Patriots were without a workhorse as Hobbs was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles and they were forced to scrap together a unit of Maroney, Julian Edelman, and Matthew Slater to field kick offs. Neither Maroney, nor Edelman were able to crack 22 yards/return on their attempts, while Slater did better on his 11 returns for a 24.5 yards/return pace.
In 2010, the Patriots used #3 receiver Brandon Tate as the kick returner and he exploded on his 41 returns for two touchdowns and a 25.8 yards/return average. Tate was expected to thrive as he entered the league as the ACC's all time leading kick returner, but unfortunately he was able to step up his game on the offensive side of the ball and eventually moved to Cincinnati.
This brings the team to 2011, where Danny Woodhead was the primary kick returner, grabbing 20 for an underwhelming 21.9 yards/return. His ability as a quick player on offense hasn't really translated in the return game where his open field speed won't leave many in the dust. While Woodhead was extremely consistent in bringing the ball back out to the twenty, he was never a threat for anything more.
Now in 2012, the Patriots have signed former Olympian sprinter Jeff Demps to most likely field kicks. In college, Demps only returned 21 kicks, but averaged 28.8 yards/return and had one touchdown. Similar to the evaluation for punter Pat Anger, Demps' potential added value could be projected by assuming 0.05 points/yard between the 20s. Should Demps average 28.8 yards/return, he projects 7 yards greater than Woodhead, leading to 0.35 points/return of added value.
However, it's unlikely that Demps would average 28.8 yards/return as that would rank him #4 in the league among qualifying returnmen (coincidentally, Woodhead was 4th from last). Should Demps be an average return man, he would post 25.0 yards/return similar to Bethel Johnson. Should he be slightly above average (Brandon Tate), a 26.0 yards/return would have him in the top third of the league. And if he somehow can match Hobbs' production at 27.7 yards/return, he would be #5 overall and a top returnman in the league. So let's see what the difference is over a season's worth of returning 30-40 kicks, assuming that the expectation is a minimum of downing the ball and starting at the 20 yard line:
Woodhead production: 22 yards/return - 0.1 points/return, 3-4 points/season; 0 points Value over Woodhead (VoW)
Faulk production: 23 yards/return - 0.15 points/return, 4.5-6 points/season; 0.5-3 VoW
Johnson production: 25 yards/return - 0.25 points/return, 7.5-10 points/season; 3.5-7 VoW
Tate production: 26 yards/return - 0.3 points/return, 9-12 points/season; 5-9 VoW
Hobbs production: 27 yards/return - 0.35 points/return, 10.5-14 points/season; 6.5-11 VoW
College production: 29 yards/return - 0.45 points/return, 13.5-18 points/season; 9.5-15 VoW
Of course, these numbers are just assumed averages and are based upon pure return yards. What if Demps should break free and score a touchdown? Let's look at the added value of other returnmen (plus a few additional rates):
Woodhead TDs: 0 TDs/return - +0 VoW/return = 0 VoW
1/100 returns - +0.07 VoW/return = +2.1-2.8 VoW
1/70 returns - +0.1 VoW/return = +3-4 VoW
Faulk TDs: 1 TD/50 returns - +0.14 VoW/return = +4.2-5.6 VoW
Hobbs TDs: 1 TD/33 returns - +0.21 VoW/return = +6.3-8.4 VoW
Tate TDs: 1 TD/20 returns - +0.35 VoW/return = +10.5-14 VoW
Coincidentally, Tate's TD rate with the Patriots was similar to Demps', albeit small in sample size, rate at Florida. Evaluating these numbers, it seems as if the difference between a Faulk and a Woodhead is an expected 9.7-11.6 points/season. Keep in mind that these touchdown rates need to be taken with a grain of salt as rates rarely are sustained over a player's lifetime and there is generally a trickle off in kick return touchdowns after a player's 5th season. Additionally, when looking at the current greats- Josh Cribbs averages a TD once every 43 returns, Leon Washington averages a TD every 31 returns- it seems likely that over a career, Demps will be very unlikely to sustain his college rate of touchdown returns.
So let's assume that Demps is able to take the ball to the house once every 50 returns and has above average yardage numbers at 26 yards/return. That means that Demps' VoW would be +9.2-14.6. Over the course of a season, Demps could look to return the ball between 30 and 40 times and those touches alone could provide a 1.8%-2.8% increase over 2011's point total- in line with justifying 1.9% of total roster space, right?
Could Demps' value be worth of a roster spot? Absolutely. However, if a player like Slater is able to provide 7 VoW, and is already guaranteed a roster spot, is the value still there? That's the question for the coaches to decide and is the reason why it is so difficult to project the players on the roster bubble.
To me, Demps has plenty of value in the return game and could create some unique packages for the Patriots on offense. Should offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels be able to create a package and get Demps on the offensive side of the ball, Demps should definitely be given a spot on the team. If he is unable to break through on the offensive side, though, his chances of making the roster are much less likely.
---
I made a calculator where you can project a player's added value over the old return man, and you can play around with the numbers.
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